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Sri Lanka's foreign reserves up in May

5月の外貨準備高
July 13, 2009 (LBO) - Sri Lanka's gross foreign reserves, without an advance to domestic banks, rose to 1,291 million US dollars in May 2009　from 1,131 million US dollars in April, the latest official data showed.
With a 145 million US dollar deposit at a domestic bank, gross monetary and fiscal reserves went up to 1,436 million US dollars in May from　1,296 million US dollars.
The advance to domestic commercial banks, first revealed two months ago, had fallen from 200 million in April.
With a balance at the Asian Clearing Union, a regional grouping including Iran and India that was set up to avoid settling deals in hard currency,the reserve balance was 1,287 million US dollars.
The central bank said gross reserves were equal to 1.46 months of imports, based on the previous average months of imports of 983 million US　dollars.
But the concept has little meaning if the central bank is committed to a flexible exchange rate. A central bank committed to a flexible exchange　rate can operate without any foreign reserves.
If reserves are used to intervene in trade transactions to preserve the peg without shrinking the domestic monetary base, a pegged exchange rate　central bank rapidly gets into a balance of payments crisis.
Usually such a central bank will float the currency when reserves hit rock bottom.
In May the central bank's net reserves backing its monetary base rose to 1,053 million US dollars from 896 million US dollars in April. In　March shortly before the float of the rupee net reserves backing the currency issue fell to 830 million US dollars
These reserve values are equivalent to 1.51 and 1.46 months of imports, respectively.
(LBO, 13-Jul-2009)

Domestic　External Sector Performance – May 2009

貿易赤字5ヶ月連続大幅改善
The trade deficit contracted for the fifth consecutive month in May 2009 by 64.0 per cent to US dollars 175 million. The cumulative trade　deficit decreased by 61.9 per cent to US dollars 982 million during the first five months of 2009 from US dollars 2,577 million in the　corresponding　period of 2008. Private remittances increased by 2.9 per cent to US dollars 1,308.6 million during the first five months of 2009, from　US dollars 1,272 million in the corresponding period of 2008. As a result, remittances during the first five months were US dollars 327 million　(about 33 per cent) in excess of the trade deficit.
Export earnings dropped by 27.8 per cent in May 2009, to US dollars 538 million, reflecting year-on-year reductions in industrial and mineral　exports. However, agricultural exports, which accounted for 26 per cent of total exports, grew by 2.5 per cent during May 2009, mainly due to　the increase in exports of traditional crops. The exports of tea, rubber and coconut increased by 3.9 per cent, 24.8 per cent and 47.9 per cent　respectively. Tea prices continued to fetch premium prices in the international market. At an average export price of US dollars 3.93 per kilo,　it was almost on par with the levels maintained during this part of the year in 2008. Rubber and coconut prices, however, declined by 44.4 per　cent and 39.0 per cent, respectively. Among the industrial exports, the earnings from the textiles and garments declined by 22.7 per cent for the　second consecutive month in May 2009, due to the lag effect of the global recession. Textiles and garments exports to the European Union and　the United States decreased by 17.9 per cent and 29.4 per cent respectively, due to lower demand emanating from these countries. The cumulative　earnings from exports declined by 18.9 per cent to US dollars 2,623 million.
The foreign exchange inflows have also responded favorably to the positive outlook brought about by the end to the three decades of conflict.
In the meantime, the Central Bank is in the process of building up its official reserves to a more comfortable level by absorbing foreign exchange　from the market. Since end April 2009, it has absorbed US dollars 511 million from the market (upto 10 July 2009). In addition, the Sri
Lanka Development Bonds (SLDBs) offered on 15 June 2009 was substantially　oversubscribed by 152 per cent, enabling the mobilization of an　additional US dollars 76 million for gross reserves.
(CBSL, 13-Jul-2009)

Monetary Policy Review – July 2009

6月の物価上昇率前年同月比0.9％、過去5年間の最低水準に。
Inflation, as measured by the year-on-year change in the Colombo Consumers’ Price Index (CCPI) declined steadily till June 2009 reaching 0.9　per cent, the lowest value recorded in around 5 years. This decline was supported by the stringent monetary policy stance exercised by the　Central Bank in the recent months and lower international commodity prices. While inflation is expected to gradually pick up from this month,
particularly following the recent revision to fuel prices and its impact on domestic prices, inflation, on an year-on-year basis, is expected to　remain at single digit levels throughout this year.
Considering the positive developments in inflation, the Central Bank has been gradually easing its monetary policy stance in order to maintain　domestic financial markets liquid and economic activity buoyant. Towards this end, the Bank has thus far: removed the penal rate, reduced the　Repurchase and Reverse Repurchase rates and, lifted the limitations placed on access to the repurchase and reverse repurchase facilities. Following　a lag period, market interest rates have now begun to show a more pronounced decline in response to these measures. While yield rates　on Treasury bills have shown a marked decline in the range of 600-680 basis points thus far during the year, a declining trend has emerged in　other market interest rates as well. The gradual reduction in deposit rates has brought down the cost of funds of financial intermediaries, facilitating　the subsequent decline in lending rates. The Central Bank notes with satisfaction the downturn in the market interest rates and expects
financial intermediaries to continue with this trend to further align their deposit and lending rates with the Central Bank’s policy interest rates as　well as current economic fundamentals.
(CBSL, 13-Jul-2009)